Friday, April 25, 2025

The Perils of Incomplete Understanding: Insights from Hindu Philosophy and Everyday Life


Incomplete understanding—whether in scientific inquiry or personal judgments—can lead to flawed conclusions and misjudgments. Hindu literature profoundly captures this idea, emphasizing the importance of knowledge, self-reflection, and context.


The Bhagavad Gita (Chapter 4, Verse 38) highlights that “there is nothing as purifying as knowledge.” Knowledge dispels misunderstandings caused by missing variables, much like critical factors clarify scientific hypotheses. Similarly, the Mahabharata (Shanti Parva) underscores that partial understanding often leads to falsehood, while complete knowledge unveils truth. A holistic view is essential to avoid the pitfalls of misjudgment.


A perfect metaphor is found in the story of the blind men and the elephant. from tittha sutta udāna 6.4 khuddaka nikaya, Buddhist Scripture written around 500 BCEach blind man touches a different part of the elephant, forming incomplete and conflicting views about the whole. This parable illustrates that partial information leads to distorted conclusions, reinforcing the need to gather all critical elements to understand a situation fully.


Consider scientific hypotheses. Missing critical variables compromise their accuracy and reliability. For instance, a hypothesis such as “Ice cream causes high cholesterol” might ignore significant factors like overall diet, genetic predisposition, or physical activity levels, leading to skewed results. Such omissions distort the relationship between variables and undermine the validity of the conclusion.


Similarly, incomplete understanding or hidden agendas can create conflicts within families, communities, and even countries. For example, within a family, assuming someone’s actions are intentionally hurtful without understanding their struggles can lead to resentment. In communities, misinformation or stereotypes about certain groups can fuel division and prejudice. On a national or global scale, political leaders acting on incomplete intelligence or hidden motives can provoke conflicts, destabilize regions, and even ignite wars. These examples highlight how the lack of transparency and context can erode trust and foster discord at every level of society.


Again, forming judgments about a person without sufficient information can lead to misunderstandings. Suppose a wealthy businessman is widely admired for his generous charity work and public relations efforts, which portray him as a benevolent figure. However, unknown to most, these acts might be a calculated facade to divert attention from unethical practices or crimes within his business operations. Without access to the full context, people may wrongly perceive him as entirely virtuous, failing to see the harm he causes behind the scenes. This example illustrates the danger of assumptions based on partial or curated information.


Key similarities between these examples include their reliance on an incomplete picture, the potential for bias, and the critical need for a broader perspective. The differences lie in their impact and resolution: Missing variables in a hypothesis can influence policy or scientific outcomes, while missing personal details affect relationships and trust. Correcting these gaps requires data collection and adjustments in the former, and communication and empathy in the latter.


The Bhagavad Gita (Chapter 6, Verse 5) advises self-reflection to elevate understanding. By seeking additional context, whether through research or dialogue, we ensure robust analysis and foster deeper connections. The timeless wisdom of Hindu texts inspires us to embrace humility, curiosity, and a commitment to uncovering the whole truth—whether in science or life.

Saturday, July 20, 2024

The Imperative of Redundancy in Disaster Recovery Plans (CrowdStrike)


In an era where digital infrastructure is the backbone of both private enterprises and government operations, the necessity for robust disaster recovery plans cannot be overstated. A comprehensive disaster recovery plan (DRP) ensures that an organization can quickly resume mission-critical functions following a disruption. Central to this strategy is the concept of avoiding single points of failure (SPOF), which can cripple an entire system when they fail.


The CrowdStrike Incident: A Stark Reminder


The recent CrowdStrike incident is a stark reminder that relying on a single cybersecurity tool, regardless of a vendor's reputation, creates a dangerous single point of failure. As companies and governments increasingly depend on sophisticated cybersecurity measures, it's crucial to implement multiple layers with multiple vendors to ensure business continuity and protect critical operations. This incident underscores that even the most reputable vendors are not immune to outages.


Javad Abed, (Assistant Professor at John Hopkins, Carey Business School) a cybersecurity expert, recently commented, "This sort of outage can happen to any vendor or company, but it is largely preventable. One of the fundamental principles of cybersecurity is redundancy."


Business Continuity and Redundant Systems


A business continuity plan (BCP) is essential for maintaining operations during and after a crisis. Part of this planning involves establishing redundant systems that can take over when primary systems fail. This redundancy is not just about having backups but ensuring that these backups can be activated seamlessly and effectively.


To achieve this, companies must focus on two critical metrics: Recovery Point Objective (RPO) and Recovery Time Objective (RTO). RPO refers to the maximum tolerable period in which data might be lost due to a major incident, while RTO is the duration within which a business process must be restored after a disaster. Effective disaster recovery and business continuity plans aim to minimize both RPO and RTO.


The Cost of Redundancy vs. The Cost of Failure


Implementing redundancies in infrastructure may have an initial upfront cost, but it is an investment for the future to  maintain a high level of confidence and trust between businesses and their customers. The expense of deploying additional systems, maintaining backups, and running regular drills to ensure preparedness is far outweighed by the cost of potential data breaches, operational downtime, and loss of customer trust. As they say the cheaper buyer gets bad meat.


Quality Control and Update Management


Companies should also rethink their testing protocols and how they release updates. The goal should be to identify potential points of failure before they become critical issues. Rigorous quality control measures can help mitigate risks, but they must be part of a broader strategy that includes regular audits, comprehensive testing, and scenario planning.


A Wake-Up Call for Cybersecurity Companies


The CrowdStrike incident should serve as a wake-up call for cybersecurity companies to revise their procedures. Implementing redundancy should not be an afterthought but a foundational principle of their service offerings. This includes continuous monitoring, regular stress-testing of systems, and proactive threat assessments to identify and address vulnerabilities before they can be exploited.


In conclusion, the CrowdStrike incident highlights the urgent need for companies and governments to have redundant systems in place. By investing in multiple layers of security, diverse vendors, and rigorous quality control processes, organizations can better safeguard their operations and maintain the trust and confidence of their stakeholders. This approach ensures that even in the face of unforeseen disruptions, business continuity is maintained, and critical operations remain protected.

Saturday, November 17, 2018

Turkey Supply in US from 1909-2016/Forecast Till 2032


As per google search, 46 million turkeys are eaten each Thanksgiving, 22 million on Christmas and 19 million turkeys on Easter. In 2011, 736 million pounds of turkey were consumed in the United States. Since 1970, turkey production in the United States has increased nearly 110%. I reviewed the public data provided by Economic Research Service (ERS) US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on turkey production supply and was amazed to see the rapid increase in turkey production over the last thirty years, from 3155 million pounds in 1986 to 5676 million pounds in 2016 which is almost 80%. As per ERS 242.5 million turkey birds were produced in U.S. in 2017 alone. US turkey consumption is about 16 pounds per capita each year. As of 2018,586 million pounds of turkey has been exported. The interactive chart below shows the increase in turkey supply since 1909.


https://public.tableau.com/views/TurkeySupplyinUSdeom1909-2016ForecastTill2032/TurkeySupplyUSInteractive?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&publish=yes

https://public.tableau.com/profile/nitindhar